A Large-Scale Observational Study of Generative AI Use, Academic Performance, Skill Retention, and Burnout Risk Among University Students
This study investigates the associations between weekly generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) tool usage and three student-level academic outcomes — post-semester GPA, skill retention score, and burnout risk level — using a large cross-sectional observational dataset of N = 50,000 undergraduate and graduate students spanning five academic disciplines. Employing covariate-adjusted ordinary least squares regression (ANCOVA), ordered logistic regression, quadratic dose-response modelling, bootstrap mediation analysis, and inverse probability weighting (IPW) with doubly robust correction, we examine whether GenAI tool adoption improves or undermines academic outcomes after controlling for pre-semester GPA, traditional study hours, institutional AI policy, and individual skill characteristics. Bivariate correlation between weekly GenAI hours and post-semester GPA is small and negative (r = −0.019), yet attenuates substantially after adjustment for pre-semester GPA — the dominant predictor (r = 0.927). Perceived AI dependency and examination anxiety partially mediate the GenAI–GPA pathway. Prompt engineering skill level and institutional policy moderate the relationship, with advanced-skill users under permissive policies demonstrating attenuated adverse effects. Non-linear modelling reveals an inverted-U pattern with diminishing or adverse returns beyond moderate weekly use thresholds. High-intensity GenAI users report meaningfully elevated exam anxiety (mean 4.99 vs. 3.82 for low users) and 25% higher perceived AI dependency scores. Debugging and troubleshooting use-cases are associated with the strongest GPA gains (∆ = +0.249), while direct-answer generation shows the weakest benefit (∆ = +0.133). These findings carry direct implications for institutional AI governance, curriculum re-design, and student wellbeing programming.